Gold and Inflation in Canada: A Time-Varying Perspective

Abstract

This study purposes of investigating the roles of gold as a hedge or a safe haven against inflation in Canada. We utilize the standard and quantile techniques in the volatility models, with the time-varying conditional variance of the regression residuals based on the TGARCH descriptions.We found that gold only plays a minor role as a hedge and safe haven against inflation since their returns do not evolve with the same rhythm as inflation. The rolling regression analysis, on the other hand, demonstrates that the incidents of refuge against purchasing power loss only occasionally occur at different times and not consistently across holding periods. These findings indicate that gold does not have the ability to secure Canadian investment during high inflationary periods and at all the time. Thus, Canadian investors should hold a well-diversified portfolio to earn sustainable return and protection from purchasing power loss.